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| The invasion of the Falkland Islands was predicted by British government officials as early as 1976, recently released Cabinet documents show. The Prime Minister Harold Wilson was told that a war between both the UK and Argentina was almost certain if an invasion did occur.
Cabinet papers, now held at the National Archives, show that Wilson was advised to restart negotiations with Argentina over sovereignty of the Falklands. Wilson was warned that at the time Britain had few countries within the international community that supported Britain’s belief that sovereignty of the islands lay with her. The then Cabinet Secretary to Wilson, Sir John Hunt, warned the Prime Minister in one briefing paper that time for a peaceful solution was running out. The then Foreign Secretary, Jim Callaghan, argued that Britain had to give some ground and that the best arrangement that Britain could expect was for a leaseback arrangement with Argentina. Hunt warned Wilson that invasion was a strong possibility and that Britain was not in a position to defend the islands against invasion and that any military attempt to retake the islands would have to be on “a major scale”. The suggestion was that Britain and Argentina would share oil and fishing rights for the area.
The Ministry of Defence also noted in one government paper that it would need a garrison of 5,000 men to defend the 1,800 islanders while the Foreign Office stated that the £2 million it would require to extend the runway at Port Stanley airport “would risk justifiable criticism….that we failed to apply proper judgement to the spending of public money.”
In 1977, tension between Britain and Argentina over the Falkland Islands worsened. The government covertly sent a small naval force to the islands in a show of strength and support. The message was absorbed by the government in Argentina as no invasion, if one was going to occur, took place that year despite the tension between both countries
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